HWWI Consult GmbH
(Hamburg, August 14, 2023) In July, the HWWI Commodity Price Index rose again (+6.3%) after a falling trend since the beginning of the year. However, the index was also significantly lower in July (-41.6%) then in the same month a year earlier.
The increase in the overall index was largely driven by the Sub-Index for Energy Raw Materials, which rose by 7.9%. On the contrary, the other two sub-indices hardly changed. In July, the Sub-Index for Industrial Raw Materials rose by 0.4% and the Sub-Index for Food and Beverages fell by 0.2%.
The Sub-Index for Natural Gas rose by double digits, by 11%, following a period by of falling gas prices since September 2022. Currently, the price of the US gas is roughly at the level of autumn 2022 (-66.9%). The subindex is very significantly below the values of the same month last year.
Contrary to the downward trend since the beginning of the year, crude oil prices also rose again in July (+7.5%). The Sub-Index for Crude Oil was 23.3% lower in July than in the same month of the previous year.
The Sub-Index for Coal also increased in July (+2.1%), but weaker than the indices for natural gas and crude oil. At -67.8%, this sub-index was also very significantly below the value of a year ago.
Overall, the Index for Energy Raw Materials rose by 7.9% (euro basis: -5.8%) in July to 195.5 points (euro basis: 202.4 points).
In July, the Sub-Index for Industrial Raw Materials rose by 0.4%, after falling by 0.9% in June. It was 9.1% lower than in July 2022.
Agricultural commodities (spinning, wood, pulp) were responsible for the small increase in the Sub-Index for Industrial Raw Materials. The corresponding sub-index rose by 3.2% in July but was 19.6% lower than in the same month of the previous year.
On the other hand, the Sub-Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (-0.3%) and the Sub-Index for Iron Ore and Steel Scrap fell slightly (-0.7%).
The Index for Industrial Raw Materials reached a value of 114.7 points (euro basis 118.6). It fell by an average of 0.4% for the month (euro basis -1.6%) and was thus 9.1%% (euro basis -16.3%) lower than a year earlier.
In July, the Index for Food and Beverages fell by 0.2% in compared with the previous month. It was thus 6.9% lower than in the same month a year earlier.
Within the Index, prices developed quite differently. While the Sub-Index for Cereals fell by 3,8% and the Sub-Index for Luxury Foods declined by 3%, the Sub-Index for Oilseeds and Oils rose by 8.1% in July.
As in the previous month, the price of soybean oil rose significantly by 21.3%. One reason for this is the decline in acreage by about 5% compared to the previous year. The price for sunflower oil rose by 14.5%. The supply shortage due to the situation in Ukraine continues to be noticeable here. In addition, consumption is expected to increase worldwide. The price for palm oil also rose significantly compared to the previous month (+13.9%).
Overall, the Index for Food and Beverages fell by an average of 0.2% for the month (euro basis -2.2%) and stood at 148.8 points (euro basis: 153,7 points).
The HWWI Commodity Price Index is a comprehensive, weekly calculated indicator of price
developments in world commodity markets, which includes the major internationally traded commodities. Since 1960, the HWWI Commodity Price Index measures the price changes in the raw material import calculation of the industrialized countries and is thus an indicator for the cost development of imported raw materials and serves among other things central banks, research institutes and international institutions for their analyses.
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